When I met Sam Watson and Diarm Byrne at the 2016 U.S. Eventing annual meeting, it seemed obvious their new company, EquiRatings, was a good idea. At the time, though, I could not have known how incredibly good it would prove to be.
The future seemed bright enough when I learned they had used statistics to correctly predict that France would win the eventing team gold at the 2016 Rio Olympics. The partners in the new business earned themselves some money in the process, since the bookies had put that country at 16-1 odds.
The two friends, who went to school together through university level in Ireland, started their company informally, sitting at either end of a ping-pong table with their laptops. It grew so rapidly that it is now the gold standard to present data that can, as they say, “create a competitive advantage on and off the field.”
The latest effort from EquiRatings is an amazing blend of “stats, ratings and analysis” for this week’s MARS Maryland 5-star event at Fair Hill. They have thoroughly documented everything about the 26 starters, with odds not only on their chances of winning, but also on who has the best shot at making the podium.
Diarm and Sam most like the chances of Piggy March, one of three British riders who have come to the States for the third edition of this event. Although Piggy’s mount, Brookfield Cavalier Cruise, has never competed in a 5-star, they say she has a 29 percent chance of collecting the famous Fair Hill Bronze. (I love it when trophies have a formal name.)
Piggy March and Brookfield Cavalier Cruise.
Their reasoning? The horse topped a strong 4-star Short field at Thoresby in England this year. I’d be more confident of this horse’s victory if he had topped a 4-star Long, but Piggy is a much-respected rider, so she will work to make up the difference. Her odds of being in the top three are even better, at 52 percent.
She also has the best average of six dressage scores, at 27, just 0.1 head of New Zealand’s Artist, who took a 14,000-mile trip to get here with rider Monica Spencer. Artist is EquiRatings’ fourth choice in the list of those likely to win, with 9 percent and a 27 percent chance of making the podium. Monica is just 1 percent behind her compatriot, Caroline Powell with Greenacres Special Cavalier.
EquiRatings’ second choice for the win, at 24 percent, is Cooley Rosalent, with world number one Oliver Townend in the irons. I’ll go along with that estimation, and am eager to see this promising mare “in person.” She’s rated at having a 45 percent chance to make the podium.
Their top pick of a U.S. entry is Doug Payne and Quantum Leap, but he’s only given a 5 percent chance of victory. On the other hand, Quantum Leap, a Zweibrucker who came to Doug as a yearling, has an 11-year history with his rider, always a plus.
He has finished in the top 10 for 14 of his 22 4- and 5-star appearances. This horse also has EquiRatings’ top ELO points for those in this field. ELO, developed from a chess template, takes points from horses beaten in competition, and gives up points to the horses that finish ahead of them. Quantum Leap’s number is 698, ahead of Colorado Blue, ridden by Ireland’s Austin O’Connor with 676.
For comparison, the number one ELO horse of all time is Michael Jung’s Bioesthetique Sam, now retired, who in 2017 had 973 points.
I know you’re asking, what about Boyd Martin, who won the Maryland 5-star in its 2021 debut with On Cue? He was the first American since 2008 to win a 5-star. (It’s worth noting that Tamie Smith won the 5-star Land Rover Kentucky event last spring for the U.S. with Mai Baum.)
Boyd Martin and Contessa at Kentucky last spring. (Photo © 2023 by Nancy Jaffer)
Boyd is back at Maryland with another mare, Contessa, but only a 2 percent chance of winning and a 9 percent chance of a podium spot, according to EquiRatings.
I’ve learned, however, never to count out Boyd. Desire and determination count for a lot in this game, and he’s got plenty of both.
Tickets for the event, presented by Brown Advisory, are still available at https://www.maryland5star.us/tickets/. Dressage begins Thursday and continues until Oct. 20. Cross-country is Oct. 21, with the show jumping wrap-up on Oct. 22. In addition to the 5-star, a 3-star competition also will be presented.
To learn even more about the athletes, along with stats and analysis around the third annual event, click on EquiRatings’ 2023 Maryland 5 Star Stats & Stories Guide
