There is no such thing as a sure thing.
Remember that when you and your friends are guessing—even doing educated guessing—about who will win the equestrian medals at the Olympics.
As the Games get under way this week in Paris, there are, of course, clear favorites. But you never know what can happen with them. The Charlotte Dujardin scandal illustrates that with painful detail.
And in making predictions, remember that where horses are involved, things can change fast. Again, reference Charlotte Dujardin. You couldn’t have predicted this story, and the way the timing of the accusation was arranged just before the Olympics, 2-and-a-half years after the incident.
Charlotte Dujardin and Imhotep.
Britain was under the most pressure going into the Games, because it always had the most to lose. It may well have won gold in dressage if Charlotte was part of the team, and is favored for eventing gold, as well as at least one individual medal in that sport.
In show jumping, Ireland, my choice for team gold, lost its reserve rider when Bertram Allen reported that he was withdrawing due to an injury to his horse, Pacino Amiro. These things often happen on the cusp of the Games.
“I was really looking forward to our second Olympic participation, but my horse’s health is the priority. I will definitely be cheering loudly for our Irish team,” Bertram stated on social media.
Ireland fortunately has great depth in show jumpers, so Bertram will be replaced by Darragh Kenny on VDL Cartello. But remember, Olympic teams have only three members and no drop score, so Ireland’s squad that actually will be competing is still intact.
It’s comprised of Shane Sweetnam (James Kann Cruz), Cian O’Connor (Maurice) and Daniel Coyle (Legacy). Ireland has never won an Olympic team show jumping medal, so this could well be the year, though defending champion Sweden will put on the strongest of challenges, while the U.S. and Germany also are clearly medal threats. And don’t count out the French wanting to show their best before a home crowd.
Ireland’s Daniel Coyle and Legacy. (Photo © 2024 by Nancy Jaffer)
Individually, how can you bet against Sweden’s world number one Henrik von Eckermann and the sensationally consistent King Edward, whose name suits him? But then there is defending gold medalist Ben Maher of Great Britain on Point Break, a different horse than Explosion, the one that took him to the top of the podium in Tokyo. And plenty of others are in the running for individual medals. Cian looks like a possibility. He is the only Irish rider who has medaled in Olympic show jumping. Ever. Germany’s Richard Vogel does a fantastic job with United Touch S and I have been impressed by Germany’s Christian Kukuk and Checker. They won the last big grand prix of the season at the Winter Equestrian Festival in style.
McLain Ward and Ilex. (Photo © 2024 by Nancy Jaffer)
Meanwhile, the USA’s McLain Ward seemed to have found the key to his ride of six months, Ilex, with a tight second-place finish in the Rolex grand prix at Aachen this month. McLain has two Olympic team gold medals, but still needs an individual medal for his collection. And could McLain’s teammates, Laura Kraut (Baloutinue) and Kent Farrington (Greya) somehow figure in the individual medal race?
In eventing, Great Britain is generally considered the candidate for team gold, defending its Tokyo title and going for a historic fifth title in the Games.
European Champion Ros Canter (Lordships Graffalo), a favorite for individual gold, has teammates (Laura Collett/London 52 and Tom McEwen/JLDublin) who are also in the running for individual medals.
The three-person format with no drop score is the same for all the Olympic disciplines, but it matters most in eventing with the three-phase format and the caprices of cross-country causing bumps in the prognostication road.
Great Britain’s Tom McEwen and JL Dublin. Photo © 2024 by Nancy Jaffer
Germany is probably Britain’s stiffest competition for top honors, with marvelous Michi Jung and fischerChipmunk FRH leading the way. At 16, this is likely Chipmunk’s last championship stand. The team was just joined by the first woman to win individual Olympic gold, Julia Krajewski, the Tokyo star. She is riding Nickel, the horse who won the Aachen eventing this month. Julia replaced the 2022 world championship team gold medal combo of Sandra Auffarth and Viamant du Matz, who was said to be not fit. The third member of the team is Christoph Wahler and Carjatan S. Calvin Bockmann and Phantom of the Opera have moved into the reserve slot.
The U.S. has a solid squad, even with the last-minute swap of Will Coleman’s mount, Diabolo, for Liz Halliday’s Nutcracker. Diabolo, who had replaced Will’s original mount, Off the Record, won the 4-star at Kentucky in April, but had developed an abcess and was replaced. Nutcracker was eighth in the Defender Kentucky 5-star that weekend. (See full story in the On the Rail section of this website, or click here).
Liz Halliday and Nutcracker at Kentucky. (Photo © 2024 by Nancy Jaffer)
Boyd Martin and Federman B, an excellent jumper, will be looking for an individual medal as well as team honors for the U.S. It would be the first time in two decades that the team medaled if they reach the podium. Caroline Pamucku is making her Olympic debut with HSH Blake, but she has proven herself to be reliable. At 29. Caroline is the youngest U.S. rider in Paris, and at age 9, Blake is the youngest horse with the American flag on his saddlepad.
We can’t ignore New Zealand, definitely in medal territory book-ended by the husband/wife powerhouse of Tim and Jonelle Price, with Clark Johnstone as the third member. Reserve, if you can believe it, is Badminton winner Caroline Powell. An embarrassment of riches. So the Kiwis are well-covered if they lose a team member.
Boyd Martin and Federman B training at Versailles. (US Equestrian photo)
Also expect the French to be in medal territory, or at least its suburbs. As we said with show jumping, they have the impetus of the home crowd behind them. With a French course designer, we’ve seen cross-country really scramble the standings at previous championships, and you can expect the same here with Pierre le Goupil doing the honors.
The fact that the dressage test will be new and shorter could also be a major factor in figuring out who wins what, making it more unpredictable than usual. And don’t forget the atmosphere at Versailles, even though spectators will be further back from the arena than they are in Aachen. That is going to add to the excitement and dare I say it, tension.
Eventers will be the first to test it out with their dressage phase, at 3:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday (9:30 a.m. French time). We’ll be covering, so stay in bed and read our bulletins when you get up for a report on the action. If you want to watch, the livestream is on Peacock, but it starts at 3:30 a.m. Eastern time. USA Network will show the first 10 riders from 3:30-4:30 a.m. Eastern. E! network will have a delayed program of top riders from 4:30-6 p.m. Eastern time.
While anything can happen in show jumping and eventing, where a rail or a refusal may befall the best of contenders, dressage tends to be a little more predictable. But not necessarily (see Charlotte Dujardin).
Britain, with Carl Hester (Fame) and world champion Lottie Fry (Glamourdale) had been my choice for gold when Charlotte was on the squad with Imhotep. Now, they could be in the medals, but it’s no sure thing. Becky Moody and Jagerbomb, who have taken Charlotte’s place, are a worthy pair, but inexperienced. So that makes Germany the gold medal choice, and world number one Jessica von Bredow-Werndl the likely individual gold medalist with TSF Dalera BB.
The eternal Isabell Werth is also an individual medal candidate with Aachen sensation Wendy de Fontaine and depending on how things go, might give Jessica a good challenge for gold. Their number three, Frederic Wandres with Bluetooth Old, isn’t quite at that level (he was more than 6 percent behind Isabell in the freestyle at Aachen, from which Jessica was absent). Alternate Ingrid Klimke withdrew a few days ago after her Franziskus was injured. Sönke Rothenberger and Fendi are replacing Ingrid and Franz.
Denmark is strong, but not strong enough to move ahead of Germany; it could be in a dead heat with Britain, though. Nanna Skodborg Merrald and Zepter may wind up in a battle for individual bronze. The Dutch, previously a dark horse team, can be well into the medal fray now. Interestingly, Dutch star Dinja van Liere (Hermes) will be at the Versailles venue just a few weeks before her brother, Joeri, competes there in wheelchair basketball at the Paralympics. Perhaps Dinja could be an individual medal contender with Hermes.
Pan American Games individual gold medalist Julio Mendoza Loor of Ecuador deserves a look in the freestyle; he should make the cut for that competition. The U.S.-based rider and Jewel’s Goldstrike did very well at Aachen, and while he’s not a medal contender, his performance and enthusiasm will speak well to the push for more countries in equestrian events at the Olympics.
And what about the U.S.?
If you had been speculating last November on who would be named to the U.S. dressage team for Paris, the only name you would have gotten right was Steffen Peters, with the “rave horse” from the Tokyo Games, Suppenkasper. The other combinations that make up the team and the alternate hadn’t even come together yet.
Considering how long it usually takes for a dressage horse and rider to reach the highest level, it definitely was a last-minute deal when Heidi Humphries of Zen Elite Equestrian bought Helix for two-time Olympian Adrienne Lyle and Bohemian for Endel Ots, who had never ridden in an international Grand Prix. But Adrienne made the team and Endel is the reserve. The third member of the squad is Marcus Orlob, who just began riding Alice Tarjan’s Jane in March.
The U.S. isn’t in the medal hunt, but with 15 teams entered, a finish in the top five or six is something to which the U.S. can aspire.
Marcus Orlob and Jane. (Susan J. Stickle Photography)
“We really had to patiently watch these combinations form a partnership and it’s remarkable how that has happened in that short of a time,” said U.S. chef d’equipe Christine Traurig.
“I think we have potential on the team. We know Steffen is very well capable of scoring about a 75 percent. He has proven that in the past. I really feel also that after Jane and Marcus scored so well in Kronberg (during an observation competition) that they are also capable of a score around 75 percent.
“When we look at Helix and Adrienne, I think it’s the same there. I will say we’re going to jump up close to the scores of the other internationally, more confirmed established horses and by established, I mean they have repetitively shown over a period of, not six months, but over a period of one year, two years, if not three years. That’s what I call established with a solid average in that score.
“Do we have that this year? No, we don’t. but should we be excited about having such a good team with such potential? In there we have a solid and seasoned horse and rider in Steffen and Suppenkasper, a proven combination. We have a younger combination in 10-year-old Jane and Marcus Orlob, and that is exciting for us, and exciting for the sport in our country. It is a horse Alice (Tarjan) bought when three years old, trained by Alice through young horse years with the coaching of Marcus and has been produced to Grand Prix in the U.S. That’s a wonderful statement and that’s exciting for us.
Christine Traurig.
“Adrienne is a fantastic rider. What she has accomplished with that horse in a very short time is simply incredible. He has a long career ahead of him and he will get better and better,” Christine emphasized.
“What is our goal? Our goal is to be as good as we can possibly be and to show the world we are not sleeping on the job. Here is where we are at the Paris Olympics and then on to the world championships (2026) and Los Angeles (2028 Olympics).
“It says something about America,” she pointed out.
“There is no standstill. We are moving forward and upward.”