Remember those EquiRatings statistics we told you about yesterday?
They proved their worth on Thursday as the MARS Maryland 5-star event began with the predicted winner taking the lead.
Notice I didn’t say the predicted winner, Great Britain’s Piggy March, actually clinched the top spot with the Irish bred Brookfield Cavalier Cruise on 24.2 penalties.
That’s because we’re only halfway through the roster of 26 starters, and there are some in the second group scheduled for Friday who have a good record in the first phase. They include World Number One Oliver Townend, another Brit, with Cooley Rosalent and William Fox-Pitt (yes, yet another Brit) with Grafennacht.
But the stats also favored Monica Spencer of New Zealand, who sent the thoroughbred Artist (Guillotine/Maxamore) 14,000 miles to be tested at Fair Hill. So guess who stands second at the moment on 28.4 penalties? You got it. Do the numbers ever lie?
Since 2010, all the winners of 5-star events in the U.S. have placed anywhere from first through fifth in the dressage segment. So we have to wait until tomorrow to see who makes that top five group.
This is Piggy’s debut at the three-year-old Maryland event, presented by Brown Advisory, and she is wildly enthusiastic about being here (except for having problems getting a rental car).
“It’s absolutely beautiful. I’ve never, ever anywhere seen such footing,” she exclaimed, referring not only to the grass on the racecourse but also in the arenas.
That, she noted, “is why we came here for our horse, we heard the footing was great.”
Her noble-countenanced 10-year-old by Cavalier Carnival out of Ryans Cruise “is still quite low on mileage.”
After he finished second in the 4-star Long at the Bramham Horse Trials in England, his team sat down to decide what would be next. They thought other 4-stars might be “taking a step back for him.” So that meant going 5-star. Although the Burghley 5-star is just down the road from Piggy’s place, and she won it in 2022 with the now-retired Vanir Kamara, the terrain is undulating and it’s a bit tougher than what Maryland had to offer – or at least that’s what she thought. But having seen the course that Ian Stark built this year, that preconceived notion has gone out the window.
“It’s such an honor and a treat to be able to come over here to compete in America. We thought this would be the best place for him. But we weren’t expecting it to be such a tough cross-country,” she admitted.
Still, it seems as if the horse she calls “the biggest dude” should be up to the task.
“He’s a brilliant horse who comes here really confident…it’s my job to give him the best run ‘round that we can do. He’s always believed in his job; he’s been a good cross-country horse so far. We’re excited to give it a go.”
Piggy believes “The best thing about him is his temperament and his mind.. He’s got such a great heart. He’s so rideable.”
“Fletcher,” as he is known around the barn, will fill out more, she noted, and gain expression in dressage as he gains experience.
“The exciting thing about him is there’s loads more to come,” she promised.
Monica calls her 12-year-old horse, “a true gentleman” as well as “a beautiful mover and capable of probably a slightly better score than that couple of little blips here and there, but can’t complain with a 28.”
She got Artist as a too-slow-to-race four-year-old, and had an interesting insight about thoroughbreds when it comes to dressage.
“I do think they take a little bit longer to strengthen up because they’re not bred or built for the job we asked them to do.”
Another thoroughbred, Phelps, showed his style with a mark of 32.9 to be fourth under Mia Farley, competing in her first 5-star. Her mount, owned by Olympic individual gold medalist David O’Connor, was purchased for $1, but that little investment has paid off in an exceptional way.
Standing third on 32.4 was 2023 Essex Horse Trials winner Hannah Sue Holberg and the Holsteiner Capitol HIM.
He doesn’t always take everything in stride, so the big screen in the arena freaked him out slightly, but then he went on to do his job.
”He did everything better and as well as he can at home or better,” said Hannah Sue, who confessed to messing up the final flying change, saying, “I was getting too excited.
“But otherwise, I thought I rode to my plan and I rode more aggressively in the trot work, which I’ve been trying to do.”
All of the top four were cited as among the best dressage horses in the event by EquiRatings.
Piggy’s comments gave us an insight of what to expect from Ian Stark’s cross-country route.
Ian said he “got some stick” for his first Maryland course because too many people made the time, but that was his debut in the venue. The second year, he said, continuing with his rationale, “was like the first year,” because the start and finish were in a different place. That’s my excuse.”
In the last 10 years at U.S. 5-stars, the 2022 Maryland cross-country had the highest inside-the-time rate at 54 percent. In 2021, it was 26 percent, tying with the 2018 Land Rover Kentucky event.
This year, Ian warns, “be careful what you wish for.”
He noted that the time to complete the course Saturday without incurring penalties is 11 minutes, 10 seconds. While Ian said, “I don’t agree with time being unobtainable,” he slyly added, “I’d be quite happy if no one gets the time.”
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